Eastern vs western Europe

As LNG supplies tighten further, divisions among EU member states are widening, and what were once considered established areas of policy consensus are fraying.

A noticeable trend is emerging: in Eastern Europe, where economies often lack both sufficient energy resources and the financial capacity to secure them at high prices, there is a strong push to diversify energy supplies.

For years, Slovakia and Hungary have opposed the EU ban on Russian oil and gas. On March 8, just eight days after the US-Israel-Iran conflict broke out, Slovakia's Prime Minister Robert Fico said his country would push to restart Russian oil flows and even threatened to block EU decisions if supplies were not restored.

In the Netherlands, calls have also grown to reopen the Groningen natural gas field, which was closed in October 2023 due to earthquake risks. Maarten van den Berg, an influential Dutch businessman, wrote on X: "Our alternative gas field in Qatar is on fire. Groningen must reopen in the national interest!"

"The US-European LNG partnership — we will probably see it evolve, but it will not fade," EU Ambassador to the US Jovita Neliupsiene was quoted by Politico Pro as saying, at an event organized by a US LNG trade association on Feb 23. Qin noted that voices advocating closer energy cooperation with the US have long existed within the EU, particularly as the US has already become the bloc's largest LNG supplier.

"As we can see, with LNG supplies tightening, disagreements within the EU are growing over environmental standards, relations with Russia and the US, and attitudes toward Iran, among other energy-related issues," said Jian, comparing the situation to Thomas Hobbes' famous phrase: "a war of every man against every man."

From March 19 to 20, the European Council held a summit addressing several issues, including energy security. In its March 19 conclusions, the Council stated that "targeted solutions are needed in the short term to ensure affordable energy", while taking into account technological neutrality, national differences, industrial competitiveness, and the need to maintain a level playing field.

Fico later posted a video on X, saying he had "refused to approve the conclusions of today's summit."

Yet despite the disagreements, EU member states still share a basic consensus, said Koert Debeuf, a distinguished adjunct professor in Middle East studies at the Brussels School of Governance. "Energy policies vary widely between countries, especially between Eastern and Western Europe, as well as between richer and poorer nations. But their common interest lies in keeping key transport routes open while avoiding being drawn into the conflict."

"They were clearly not pleased by the recent escalation and are trying to maintain distance," he added.